Monty Hall Paradox Explained


It may well be that you could spend years of your life playing at sites such as the VIP Bet Casino and never really think about the deeper ideas and theories which lie behind gambling, but it will almost be a shame if you did so. There are so many interesting ways in which the human psychology can be affected when it comes to gambling, and the Monty Hall Paradox is a very good example of this. If you have never heard of it before, then you will not be in the minority – this is a little known idea, but there are thousands of websites dedicated to it already as it is such an interesting concept that you really have to think about it a lot.

It is based on the popular television show called Lets Make a Deal which used to be on, though we could perhaps draw parallels now with the Deal or No Deal game show which is currently popular. The idea is as follows: you are asked to choose one of three doors. Behind two of the doors are simply goats, but behind the third is a brand-new car. All you have to do is find the car and you will win it for yourself, hitting the jackpot in this case. You are asked to choose which door will be yours right from the beginning, but once you have chosen it the host will introduce a twist. He will open one of the doors which you did not choose, revealing a goat standing behind it. Now you know that there is one goat behind one door and one car behind the other door, and the host will ask you if you would like to switch from your initial choice to the door that remains. At that point, everything seems to fall apart. You have no idea whether you should change doors or not, and you doubt both him and yourself, as the host has introduced that idea of failure into your mind. Making a decision at that point could be very difficult indeed.

Through many debates and arguments on the Internet, it seems as though the popular consensus is that you stand a better chance of winning if you switch your choice. This is what seems to be a really strange conclusion to reach, and there are lots of different arguments for and against this theory which are too convoluted and difficult to follow, so we will not go into them right now. You can certainly look them up for yourself very easily if you just search for the Monty Hall Paradox yourself. This is set to be an example of a veridical paradox, a type of puzzle which produces a result which seems absurd but can nevertheless be demonstrated to be true. Of course, when it comes down to statistics, we all know that even if something has the very slimmest chance of happening, that does not mean that it will not.

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